Goonfleet vs. Band of Brothers

For more than five days now, KenZoku and its subordinate Alliances have remained camped into the NPC station of PR-8CA. The only activity from the blockaded parties is a few individuals trying to leave in disposable frigates or shuttles. A greater threat is currently posed by...well...Minor Threat, who now seem to be intendant upon more than quick vengeance for last weekend's moment of comedy.

In the last three days a majority of the in-system kills by GoonSwarm are Minor Threat fast Frigate and assault Cruiser gangs roving Delve. The next night, more of them are back; seeking stragglers and targets of opportunity. Given their chosen enemy's indolence, I don't think GoonSwarm minds the distraction deep down. In different circumstances, an invasion of annoyances like this could be chased out with a few flottilas of Goon assault craft and sniping Battleships. However, the focus of attention remains the systematic destruction of KenZoku's hundreds of Towers and the claiming of their territory.

Again, keep in mind that the map represents the reality on the ground from a week ago. It takes seven days for a Tower majority to officially claim Sovereignty in a system. Regardless of the delay, KenZoku Sovereignty continues to disappear because all Towers in some systems have been destroyed. KenZoku enjoyed a 42-to-8 Station majority in J-LPX7 (the site of the heaviest fighting) this morning. Each station literally has millions of hit points. By tomorrow morning, GoonSwarm and its Coalition partners expect to have razed all of them; leaving them with 0-to-8 control of a system having 108 moons. The Dreadnought teams are working around the clock with what is now a practiced, machine-like efficiency.

Meanwhile, lesser strategic threats are also being dealt with. When the BoB Sovereignty collapsed, one of the groups unaffected was the Pet Alliance Axiom Empire. Axiom Empire held Sovereignty level 3 in a couple of scattered systems. They tried to help with the resistance by emplacing new Towers of their own early in the conflict as well. Now, Axiom Empire holds no Sovereignty anywhere in Delve; thus removing one more bolt-hole for GoonSwarm's enemy to base from.

Further East, the Skunk-Works Alliance also held Sovereignty 3 in a small portion of Querious and expanded that territory early in the War to stem the tide of Goon-Coalition Tower-spam. The RAZOR Alliance, along with other members of the Northern Coalition, has done yeoman's work in attacking this redoubt. Two more Skunk-Works held systems lost all Sovereignty this morning. While Skunk-Works is putting up as little resistance as the rest of the KenZoku Pets at the moment, it must be mentioned that RAZOR and company are having to do this the old-fashioned, brute-force way. Any system with functioning Cyno-jammers means rapid reinforcement and Capital Ship firepower will not be forth-coming.

Moving away from the major combat (if I may be permitted to call it that ) zone, Against ALL Authorities and its Southern allies continue their occupation of old Goon-space and are even moving on Goon allies. Prior to the dissolution of BoB, AAA (with BoB support) had been contesting GoonSwarm territory in Tenerifis and Feythabolis. Also in the South, Stain Empire, Systematic-Chaos, C0VEN, and Atlas Alliance were fighting for Esoteria against GoonSwarm and the United Legion (UNL). UNL was able to hold its own, and backed by GoonSwarm were denying the enemy territorial gains.

When GoonSwarm relinquished their holdings in the South, UNL moved rapidly to take possession of their Feythabolis and Tenerifis domains. They have had some success in Tenerifis, contested against AAA, but have been pushed back by Red.Overlords and AAA in Feythabolis. Loss of this area means their holdings in the Southwest are cut off from South-central. Furthermore, they were not able to claim the Goons' part of Esoteria and are now beginning to lose ground in Paragon Soul.

United Legion is very much a "rear guard" for the Delve invasion, with all the risks that come with that role. So long as Stain, C0VEN, & cetera do not take Paragon Soul, there is no escape route from the southern region of the war-zone through Period Basis. KenZoku and Pet posters have made much of GoonSwarm and the Northern Coalition "abandoning" United Legion. The Goons have replied that everyone in the War Coalition knows what is at stake, what must be prioritized at the moment, and that unlike BoB/KenZoku, they do not abandon their allies or treat them as servants. UNL for its part, has expressed confidence that they can hold against their bitter rivals.

So is that all AAA is up to? In an earlier post this morning, I pointed out that a Red.Overlord ship with a Cyno-field Generator had been destroyed in PR-8CA. That could have signaled the beginning of an invasion, but there has been no other activity through (and now beyond) Russian prime-time. It's entirely possible it was simply a head-game. A cheap (literally) joke at everyone's expense.

If the Kestral had been part of a larger invasion plan, I'm afraid I would have had to revise my estimate of their stance a third time. I'd previously expressed puzzlement over why AAA would not be fully backing KenZoku when they would become the natural next target for all the parties involved. I changed my mind after I recalled that AAA is Russian; with the educational point of view on history which that implies. If you look at Against ALL Authorities territory (Catch, Tenerifis, Impass, Omist, and Feythabolis) their constellations tend to be arranged in long strings. Most of these are heavily built-up Sovereignty level 3 systems. It may be the AAA leadership's belief that, even if they end up facing a large Coaltion, they have plenty of ground to force an enemy to fight for. Their territory is very "deep", and has recently gotten deeper. If facing more enemies than they can manage, they can make a fighting retreat of it while their central territories are untouched. AAA might survive this way for a long time.

Furthermore, if they sit and wait for KenZoku and the Pets to collapse, they can pick and choose amongst their best pilots to recruit. What other alliance could they join? Where else are they going to go?

I don't think the Russians are coming to help ...

So where does that leave KenZoku and the Pets? I'm reminded of a frustrated fan sitting near me at a hockey game who screamed to his team "Do Something! Even if it's wrong!" The current KenZoku strategy is like the occupants of a besieged castle saying "forget the food stocks, I'm sure they'll pack up and leave soon enough". The longer they sit inactive, the less a breakout is likely to accomplish.

KenZoku still has possession of 26 known Titans. A group of them could break the fleet out of PR-8CA in a few minutes. They would naturally be beset immediately...unless of course another Titan could also be used as a distraction. If one was spotted trying to hop north to the borders, the bored attackers would likely swarm it from all locations. Even more-so if it turned out to be Shrike in a fifth Avatar. (The deliberate sacrifice of himself to fool his enemies would also go some ways towards recovering face for him.)

Once a breakout was made, they could either stand and fight in a single throw of the dice or retreat Northeast. If they made a stand in PR-8CA with all of the Coalition members jumping in-system, they would be attempting to cripple GoonSwarm's numbers in their space with superior firepower and bring a halt to the Tower offensive. If they retreated to Skunk-Works space, they regain Sovereignty advantages for their base while being able to range freely across the rest of Querious.

As it is, a few KenZoku members are retreating to Period Basis. Why this is a good idea is beyond me. In the Northeast, resupply from Empire should be easy. Period Basis is a cul de sac. Resupply is extremely difficult and even if they had a route through Paragon Soul, the distance is too far for a Cyno-Jump; retreating that way would mean leaving their Capital Ships and Titans behind. The Executive Outcomes Alliance, in Sovereignty 3 control of the southern half of Period Basis, has openly told their members to get their equipment out to Empire-space while they still have time.

If anything happens, it needs to happen Friday or Saturday at the latest. Anything later means there will be fewer people with time to log on for extended periods and less likelihood of building any momentum. Failing to make a move by the end of Saturday in Europe will mean the loss of many corporation members as they are faced with probability of another week of inactivity while the leadership "waits". Throwing taunts at the Goons and promising to do it a second time tomorrow is not rewarding play. (Though there have been reports that a few of *the Goons* have been stunned into silence by the vehemence and personal nature of some of the smack-talk emanating from PR-8CA.)

If KenZoku is planning to rise phoenix-like from NPC space in a few weeks, they will be sorely disappointed. Even if the Northern Coalition has gone home by that point, they have stated they are leaving a battle-fleet and Jump Clones behind in an EVE equivalent of pre-positioning. If KenZoku should reappear weeks later with any kind of strength, the North could respond within hours. Furthermore, who will wish to come with them in these forays of vengeance with little likelihood of material gain? It's conceivable that Sir Molle could form new Alliances and sortie from Delve NPC-space for years; but each time he did it would be with fewer pilots and more derision. Meanwhile, the Goons will gain all the terrain advantages that their enemy once held and more. They will have "Fortress Delve" with easy access to Empire, allied groups holding their Northern and Southeastern approaches, and the Sovereignty Level 4 constellations that once belonged to BoB.

If KenZoku fails to fight any further for what they are losing, I firmly lay the blame on a Failure of Leadership. BoB was the strongest and most feared organization in EVE. Their stated opinion was once enough to sway other Alliances. It was Sir Molle who set BoB's goal of the destruction of GoonSwarm, citing them as too rude and uncivilized to remain in Band of Brothers' Game. It was Sir Molle who declared that GoonSwarm would never be allowed to hold territory in Player Controlled Space. Where now is this majestic heater repairman while his empire burns?

When BoB first came to destroy GoonSwarm they were a new, tiny alliance based in Cloud Ring. GoonSwarm didn't have the skills or resources to fight back against the Battleships BoB was fielding against them. For two and a half weeks they sustained losses against them. Then in a shift of tactics, they made dozens of new characters named "VCBee XXX", where XXX was a random number. These throw-away characters were used for guerilla warfare against BoB. Having them destroyed essentially cost GoonSwarm nothing and any losses for Band of Brothers gained them nothing. Furthermore the unique "Goon" mentality meant they could keep up the effort indefinitely while still enjoying themselves. BoB declared GoonSwarm "Destroyed" and left the North.

If Sir Molle is indeed planning to attempt harassment of GoonSwarm from NPC space at some later date, he is willingly adopting the position GoonSwarm held when he personally declared his enemies "Destroyed" so many years ago . Take that as your Daily Irony...